WHY IRAN ATTACKED ISREAL?

Iran's recent airstrikes were retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria two weeks earlier. Although the embassy was located on the territory of another country, it is considered part of the home country's sovereign territory. It was no different from the home country being bombed by a hostile power. This incident poured fuel on the fire just as concerns were growing that the Gaza situation could escalate into a full-scale war between nations.

Israel's attack at the time was precise, destroying only the consular building attached to the main embassy structure. Of the casualties from the bombing, 7 were Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders. Israel claimed the presence of military personnel, not diplomats, justified the attack as targeting a covert Revolutionary Guard outpost, but Iran denied this and vowed retaliation.

 

And Iran did launch missiles at Israel. The two countries have now exchanged blows once. But will it end there? Whether this escalates into full-scale war is difficult to predict at this point. However, the likelihood of continued high tensions akin to a state of war is high, largely due to the calculations and will of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

From a purely political cost-benefit analysis, Netanyahu has found an opportunity to extend his political lifeline with Iran's retaliatory strikes. Until recently, Netanyahu had been facing public protests calling for his resignation, especially after failing to prevent a Hamas surprise attack on Israel last October. With the government in disarray due to controversial judicial reforms pushed by far-right coalition members, security vulnerabilities were exposed. After the Gaza crisis, Netanyahu faced calls to take political responsibility, and even potential legal jeopardy from past corruption scandals. When survival is at stake, all other issues become secondary. Netanyahu's trump card is escalating the conflict with Iran, Israel's primary threat. If he can drag Iran into the ring, the Israeli public will have no choice but to rally around the Prime Minister as their wartime leader. The April 1st bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria provoked the Iranian missile strikes, and ultimately led to the formation of an Israeli emergency government. The latest Iranian airstrikes are likely to be seen as successfully intercepted with minimal damage. Netanyahu has regained a chance to revive his political fortunes - the more the security situation deteriorates, the more it favors the current Prime Minister.

 

Iran, on the other hand, finds itself in a dilemma. It could not remain silent after its embassy was attacked, hence the retaliation. However, Iran is wary of being drawn into a war that would play into Netanyahu's hands and prolong his political survival. There are also concerns that the recent geopolitical balance favoring Iran could be upended. Six months ago, the Hamas attack on Israel had significantly boosted Iran's regional leverage, as Iran was the only power able to control the various armed groups it supports, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Imam Hussein Brigades in Syria. The more the Hamas-Israel clashes continued, the more it benefited Iran, as regional actors turned to Iran as the "godfather" who could rein in his unruly "children." However, the latest airstrikes have now made Iran a party to the conflict, rather than just a mediator. Iran's position as an impartial arbiter has likely been weakened. Iran likely wishes to contain the situation at this level, as evidenced by a message from its UN mission stating that the retaliation for the attack on its Damascus embassy has been completed.

 

The geopolitical fallout is also significant. Iran's airstrikes are likely to further strengthen anti-Iran sentiment among Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who have witnessed Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory. This will accelerate their cooperation with Israel in an anti-Iran bloc. It could also revive Saudi Arabia's stalled negotiations to normalize relations with Israel.

 

The issue is also likely to be a key foreign policy flashpoint in the upcoming November US presidential election. The Biden administration's mediation efforts will be crucial, as it must balance its staunch support for Israel while also pressuring Netanyahu to avoid escalation. The Trump camp will likely rally behind Netanyahu with strident anti-Iran rhetoric, criticizing the Biden administration for failing to protect its ally Israel.

 

An even more ominous prospect is the possibility of violent extremist groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, as well as ISIS and al-Qaeda-linked elements, seizing on the conflict as an opportunity to escalate their own provocations. A fifth Middle East war in 50 years may be unthinkable, but those eager for conflict are surely lurking.

 

 

Nam-sik  In

Professor

Korea National Diplomatic Academy